With the Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025, the shape of policy is being set as much by the fiscal framework as by politics. The new rules (current budget surplus target and a debt rule on PSNFL, not PSND) compress headroom into the OBR’s year-3 view—so “paid for and soon” beats “promised and later.” For advisers, that means modelling timing, documentation and disclosure risk before clients chase rate rumours.
1) Fiscal rules now design the tax menu (and your timing advice)
Reeves’s rules aim for a current budget surplus by the third forecast year, with debt measured on public sector net financial liabilities falling; the horizon is shortening so the rules bite faster. Packages that score cleanly in the OBR (immediate yield, credible multipliers) are favoured over back-loaded promises. Advisory move: when planning disposals/dividends around 5 April or the Budget, run two scenarios—one with near-term base-broadening or relief caps, one without—because the binding rule is near-term.
2) Non-dom abolition is live: FIG regime & IHT exposure
From 6 April 2025, the remittance basis is gone and a 4-year Foreign Income & Gains (FIG) regime applies for new/returning UK residents (after 10 non-resident years). Transitional measures include CGT rebasing to 5 April 2017 for some and a beefed-up Temporary Repatriation Facility. Planning now is about onshore cashflows (what to bring, when) and trust/IHT mapping as the residence-based approach extends inheritance tax exposure far earlier in a client’s UK journey. Document eligibility, legacy remittances and trustee mechanics before year-end.
3) Capital allowances: full expensing is permanent, but leasing remains the blind spot (for now)
Full expensing (100% main-rate P&M; 50% FYA for special-rate) is in force and widely relied on in 2025 computations. The long-running consultation to extend full expensing to assets for leasing hasn’t yet landed in legislation—so most lessors still sit outside. If your client’s model depends on lease deployment, assume no extension until it is on the face of a Finance Act; structure purchases accordingly, and watch the Budget lines for any trial carve-outs.
4) MTD ITSA is finally happening (and it will catch clients out by threshold math)
MTD for Income Tax starts 6 April 2026 for qualifying income >£50k (based on 2024/25 return), and 6 April 2027 for >£30k (based on 2025/26). Many landlords/sole traders will discover they’re in-scope after filing 31 January returns. Build a December checklist: confirm clients’ qualifying income, choose approved software, and calendar quarterly update dates now.
5) Crypto reporting (CARF) will shift HMRC leverage overnight
Regulations made in June 2025 bring the OECD CARF into UK law from 1 January 2026. UK reporting cryptoasset service providers must run due diligence, register, and report client transactions, with first reports due 31 May 2027. Expect HMRC nudge-letters, data matches and discovery assessments where Self Assessment omits disposals. Action: add a crypto question to every onboarding/annual questionnaire and reconcile client platform reports to returns.
6) Labour-supply risk transfers up the chain (umbrella market)
Draft Finance Bill 2025–26 provisions introduce joint and several liability for PAYE/Class 1 NICs where an umbrella company sits in the chain—aimed at tackling mini-umbrella and DR schemes. Target commencement 6 April 2026. For agencies/end clients this is a procurement and audit issue, not merely payroll: map supply chains, update warranties/indemnities, and run sample PAYE/NIC compliance checks on umbrella counterparties.
7) VAT threshold: plan for either direction, don’t guess
The threshold rose to £90,000 in April 2024. Briefings and think-tank papers now float both a cut (to widen the base) and a rise (to ease admin for micro-businesses). Treat every client near the cliff edge as at-risk: model price-inclusive margins if pulled into VAT, and prepare a communications plan for customers either way. No change is law until the Red Book says so.
